Thursday, January 23, 2014

StatWing Finding #8: Household Type & Prison Time

(Data source: https://export.statwing.com/p0/datasets/dat_c5PMCMjP3nSEEHLK9fUVIIgvtdgWgzHV)

I'll be honest, I'm not too sure what to make of this, but it definitely feels like there's something here. 

The survey defines Household Type with a wide range of choices from Single Adult to Cohabitating with children. But what does that have to do with Prison Time?  Where's the correlation?  When I charted it out and sorted the Household Types by how likely someone had spent any time in prison, I noticed something interesting.


It would seem that people in unstable households are more likely to have spent time in prison than people who are in stable households.

That's only if you agree with the following assumptions regarding how different household factors impact stability:

  • Marriage -- increases stability (having a committed partner can help you weather any storm)
  • Children -- decrease stability (raising kids is stressful but manageable if married)
  • Cohabitating -- decreases stability (are you committed? are you not? where is it leading? how do you plan your future around that?)
By the above logic, the most stable household would be a Married Couple. The least stable household would be a Cohabitating Couple with Children - not only is your partner's commitment potentially in question but throw on top of that kids, how could it not be stressful?  

As you can see in the chart, the percentage of people who are in stable households who have spent time in prison (10%) is significantly less than people in unstable households (33%). 

Of course, there's really nothing that says a cohabitating couple is any more or less committed or "stable" than a married couple. It's just one convenient (and creative) interpretation of the data. But you gotta admit, the data makes it compelling to believe it.


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